The US just blockaded the Strait of Hormuz

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Remember the great toilet paper shortage of 2020? I do. Not because I ran out (I didn't), but because it was the moment I realized that supply chains aren't abstract economic concepts. They're the reason there's food on your shelf and gas in your car. When they hiccup, everyone feels it.

Here’s what I’ve got today:

What Supply Chain History Teaches About Being Ready

In 2021, a single cargo ship blocked the Suez Canal for six days. Car parts, electronics, and household goods were backordered for months afterward. In 2020, a pandemic emptied store shelves not because there wasn't enough food, but because the distribution system couldn't pivot fast enough. In 2022, a baby formula shortage left parents scrambling because a single factory shutdown exposed how concentrated production had become.

The pattern is consistent. Supply chains are efficient but fragile. They're optimized for normal conditions and break under abnormal ones. And "abnormal" happens more often than the system is designed for.

You don't need to understand global logistics to protect yourself. You need to understand three things.

First, disruptions give warning signs. Port congestion data, shipping rate indices, and manufacturer announcements all telegraph problems weeks or months before they hit store shelves. The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is a free, monthly data point that tracks exactly this. When it spikes, shortages follow. We track it in our On the Radar section.

Second, the items that disappear first are predictable. In every disruption, the same categories get hit: shelf-stable food, batteries, water containers, fuel, and whatever specific item is linked to the crisis (masks during COVID, iodine tablets during nuclear scares). Maintaining a rolling stock of basics means you're never panic-buying alongside everyone else.

Third, the "buy one extra" strategy is the simplest insurance. Every grocery trip, buy one extra of a shelf-stable item you already use. Pasta, canned goods, rice, cooking oil, soap, toothpaste. Over a few months, you build a buffer without any single purchase hurting your budget. When a disruption hits, you shop from your pantry while the stores sort themselves out.

The biggest lesson from recent history is that disruptions aren't anomalies anymore. They're features of a system optimized for cost over resilience. You can't fix global logistics. But you can build enough personal buffer to ride out the gaps.

Add three extra shelf-stable items to your next grocery run.

NY Fed Supply Chain Pressure Index Hits Highest Level Since January 2023

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March, up from 0.54 in February. That is the highest reading since 1.09 in January 2023, and the trend line has been climbing for three consecutive months. A reading of zero means normal conditions. Anything above that signals mounting pressure.

The increase is driven almost entirely by Middle East shipping disruptions. The current level is still well below the COVID-era peak of 4.49 in December 2021, but the direction matters more than the magnitude. In 2021, the index climbed steadily for months before shortages showed up on store shelves. We are watching the same pattern develop now. Bookmark the index and check it monthly. When it crosses 1.0, tighten your supply buffer.

Source: NY Fed, PYMNTS

FerFAL lived through Argentina's 2001 economic collapse and documented it in Bugging Out and Relocating. His experience with supply disruption was extreme: overnight, the currency devalued, banks froze accounts, and store shelves emptied. But what he emphasizes is that the collapse wasn't sudden. Prices crept up for months. Selection narrowed gradually. Quality dropped before quantity did.

His key lesson for Americans: don't wait for the dramatic moment. The dramatic moment is when it's too late. Instead, watch the trends. When prices start rising faster than usual on staples, when specific items start going on backorder, when "temporarily unavailable" becomes common on your regular shopping list, that's the signal to accelerate your stocking pace, not to start it.

US Begins Blockade of Strait of Hormuz as Peace Talks Collapse

US Central Command announced it will enforce a maritime blockade on all traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports starting 10 a.m. ET today, after face-to-face peace talks in Islamabad fell apart over the weekend. Oil surged past $103 per barrel overnight. The national average for gas has climbed to $4.16 per gallon, up roughly 40% since the conflict began on February 28.

CENTCOM clarified that the blockade targets only Iranian port traffic and will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait to non-Iranian ports. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded that any military vessel approaching the Strait will be considered a ceasefire violation. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and up to 25% of global LNG shipments.

For anyone stocking a pantry or running a generator, the math just changed. Fuel costs affect everything from shipping rates to fertilizer prices. If you’ve been meaning to top off stored fuel or accelerate your food buffer, today is the day.

Source: NPR, CNBC, CBS News

Pantry Inventory Clipboard

About $3 from any dollar store or office supply aisle. We clipped a simple inventory sheet to it and hung it inside the pantry door. Every time something runs low, it gets marked. No app, no spreadsheet, no batteries. The clipboard is the least glamorous piece of gear we own, and it has done more for our preparedness than most things that cost ten times as much. Knowing exactly what you have and what you need is the foundation of every other system in this newsletter.

Overrated: "Emergency food" subscription boxes from survival companies. They're expensive, the portions are small, and you're paying a premium for packaging and marketing. Buy bulk staples at Costco or a grocery store for a fraction of the cost.

Underrated: Tracking what you consume. Most people don't know how much rice or canned goods their household goes through per week. Track it for one month. Then you'll know exactly how much buffer you need.

The spreadsheet took me 15 minutes to create. The clipboard was $3 from a dollar store. It's the single most useful "gear" in my preparedness setup, and it doesn't have batteries, a brand name, or an affiliate link.

Budget alternative: A notebook page taped to the pantry door. Seriously. Pen and paper. It works.

NY Fed Supply Chain Pressure Index — Monthly data on global supply chain stress. Bookmark this.

FreightWaves — Industry news on trucking, shipping, and logistics disruptions.

Port of Los Angeles: Real-Time Data — Container throughput and vessel counts. Early warning for import delays.

Wolf Street — Independent financial analysis, often covers supply chain and inflation trends.

USDA FoodKeeper App — How long stored food actually lasts. Free and well-designed.

Grokipedia: Supply Chain — Background on how global supply chains work and where they break.

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PS: The toilet paper thing taught me something I didn't expect. The shortage wasn't a supply problem. It was a demand spike. Everyone bought three months' worth in one week. Being the person who already had three weeks' supply meant I never had to join that line.