57 California Dams in Poor Condition, 60 Lack Emergency Plans

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The Ready Brief #224

Practical preparedness for uncertain times

An evacuation plan covers more than fire. California's State Auditor reported this week that 57 of the state's dams are in poor or unsatisfactory condition, and that owners of 60 dams have not filed required emergency plans. The same plan, covering when to go, what to take and how you will hear about it, works for a wildfire, a flood or a dam emergency. This issue walks through how to build it before any order arrives.

Wildfire Evacuation Planning

Ready.gov describes wildfires as unplanned fires that spread quickly. Evacuation orders sometimes come with hours of lead time. Sometimes you get minutes.

The biggest factor in a safe wildfire evacuation is leaving early. Not when the order comes. Before it comes. If you're in fire country and conditions are bad (high winds, low humidity, a red flag warning, visible smoke), go. Don't wait for official word. And if local authorities tell you to evacuate, leave immediately.

Your evacuation plan starts with a go-bag that is already packed. Not a list of things you'll grab. A bag that's sitting by the door. Essentials include identification documents (or copies), insurance information, medications, a phone charger and battery bank, cash, a change of clothes, and a basic hygiene kit. For families with children, add comfort items, diapers and formula if applicable, and school or medical records.

Irreplaceable items need a system. Photos, external hard drives and family heirlooms are the hardest things to replace. Digitize documents and photos and store them in the cloud. For physical items, keep a small "last grab" box in a consistent location so you can pick it up without thinking.

Know your evacuation routes. Don't rely on a single road. Identify at least two routes out of your area and drive them both so they're familiar. During a fast-moving fire, your primary route may be blocked by fire, downed trees, or traffic. Panic navigation on unfamiliar roads at night is dangerous. Download offline maps.

Designate a meeting point outside your area. If family members are separated when the order comes, everyone needs to know where to regroup. Pick a location far enough from the fire zone to be safe, a relative's house, a specific hotel, a public building in the next town.

Vehicle preparation matters. Keep your car fueled above half, always. During an evacuation, gas stations may be closed or crowded. Park facing outward in your driveway so you can leave quickly. If you have pets, keep carriers accessible.

Defensible space around your home is a pre-evacuation task. Ready.gov recommends a fire-resistant zone, free of leaves, debris and flammable materials, for at least 30 feet from your home. Close windows and vents before leaving. Move propane tanks away from the house if time allows. These steps don't guarantee your home survives, but they improve the odds.

After leaving, don't go back until officials clear the area. Ready.gov warns of hot ash, smoldering debris and live embers, and says the ground may hold heat pockets that can burn you or spark another fire. Once you're out, you're out. Your house is a thing. You are not replaceable.

Register with your county's emergency alert system if you haven't already. Ready.gov notes that Wireless Emergency Alerts need no sign-up, and recommends having several ways to receive alerts. Apps like Watch Duty and county-specific systems add detail for your area.

The best evacuation is the one you do before you need to be told.

Pack a wildfire go-bag (or audit the one you have).

Even if you're not in fire country, the same bag works for any rapid evacuation. Documents, medications, charger, cash, clothes. Pack it. Put it by the door. If it's already packed, check the medications and documents are current.

NOAA Winter Outlook: Odds of a Strong El Niño Above 83%

NOAA's winter outlook, issued Oct 15, calls for a "very strong El Niño" (NWS Director Ken Graham). From December to February it favors wetter-than-average conditions across the southern tier and along the East Coast, and warmer-than-average conditions in the north. The Climate Prediction Center's Oct 8 update puts the odds of a strong to very strong event through January to March 2027 above 83%, with an 83% chance that October to December ranks as the strongest since 1950. The Niño-3.4 index is +2.1°C. NOAA updates the outlook Nov 19. Wetter winters raise flood risk, so flood alerts belong in your plan alongside fire alerts. We will track whether the odds hold.

Source: NOAA (Oct 15 release), NOAA Climate Prediction Center (Oct 8 ENSO discussion)

Amanda Ripley, an award-winning journalist, wrote The Unthinkable (paperback, about $17). According to Amazon's description of the book, she traces how people respond in disasters, from the 1917 Mont Blanc ship explosion to the 15,000 people who found their way out of the World Trade Center on September 11, and consults brain scientists and trauma psychologists to explain why.

Our takeaway: decide your leave trigger before a fire starts, such as a red flag warning plus visible smoke, or any evacuation warning for your zone. Then you are following a rule you made when you were calm, not making a call under stress.

Source: Amazon book listing

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California Auditor: 57 Dams in Poor Condition, 60 Lack Emergency Plans

California's State Auditor reported Oct 13 that 57 of the 1,222 dams the state assessed are in poor or unsatisfactory condition as of May 2026, including 40 rated high or extremely high hazard. That is up from 30 in 2023. Failure of just one of those 40 could endanger as many as hundreds of thousands of people, the audit says. Owners of 60 dams with significant or higher hazard ratings have not submitted required emergency action plans. The Department of Water Resources disagreed with many of the audit's recommendations and says limited resources have slowed repairs. Hazard ratings reflect who lives downstream, not how likely a dam is to fail. Ask your county emergency office whether a dam sits upstream of your home, and sign up for local alerts.

Source: California State Auditor (report 2025-603), Courthouse News Service

Watch Duty App

Free to start. Watch Duty is a nonprofit app that sends real-time wildfire and flood alerts and shows live maps and evacuation information.

The free Standard tier covers wildfire and flood alerts for up to 4 counties. Basic ($24.99 per year) and Pro ($99.99 per year) remove that limit. We recommend setting up the free tier now and choosing the counties you drive through or have family in, not only the one you live in.

Budget alternative: InciWeb (inciweb.wildfire.gov), the federal wildfire incident information site. Free.

Overrated: Expensive fire-resistant safes as your primary document protection. If the house burns, the safe might survive. But if you evacuate, the documents are still inside. Digital copies in the cloud are more accessible and more resilient.

Underrated: Leaving early. Waiting to see whether the neighbors go ("My neighbor isn't leaving") is how people end up leaving late. Being the first car out of the neighborhood is a feature, not an embarrassment.

Bulk buying without hoarding. There's a line between smart pantry building and panic purchasing. We'll cover how to stay on the right side of it.

How was today's issue? Tap one below. If you pick "Could be better," tell us what to fix.

PS: Alerts only help if they reach you. Is every phone in your household signed up for your county's emergency alerts?

THE READY BRIEF is published for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is professional legal, medical, financial, or tactical advice. Preparedness looks different for every household. Use your own judgment, consult qualified professionals when the stakes are high, and adapt what you read here to your actual situation.