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FROM THE DESK
Someone asked me last week why I don't seem worried about things. I told them I'm not less worried than most people. I just channel the worry into assessment instead of anxiety. Instead of "what if the power goes out?" I ask "what's the probability, what's the impact, and what have I done about it?" That framework turns vague fear into specific action. And specific action is the cure for worry.
Here's what I've got this week.
THE BRIEF
Assessing Risk the Way Professionals Do
Throughout this newsletter, we've prepared for various scenarios: outages, storms, floods, fires, supply disruptions, and more. But we've never discussed how to systematically evaluate which risks deserve your attention and which don't. This week, we borrow from the intelligence and emergency management world.
Professional risk assessment uses a simple matrix: probability times impact. High probability and high impact threats get the most resources. Low probability and low impact threats get the least. Everything else falls somewhere in between.
For your household, map your risks. A power outage is high probability and moderate impact. You've prepared extensively for it. An earthquake might be moderate probability (depending on location) and high impact. A nuclear detonation is extremely low probability but extreme impact. Where you invest your preparation time should roughly follow this matrix.
Probability comes from data. NOAA historical data tells you how often severe weather hits your area. USGS maps show earthquake risk. FEMA flood maps show flood probability. FBI data shows crime rates. Your utility's outage history shows grid reliability. Use data, not feelings, to assess probability.
Impact depends on your specific situation. A power outage has moderate impact for a healthy adult couple but high impact for a family with a CPAP-dependent member or insulin-requiring diabetic. A flood has high impact for a basement-level apartment and low impact for a third-floor unit. Personalize the assessment.
The output of this process is a prioritized list. Your top five risks get the most preparation attention and resources. Your lower risks get baseline coverage. You stop worrying about risks that are extremely low probability, because worry without preparation is just anxiety.
Review the assessment annually. Risks change: you move, your health changes, infrastructure ages, the situation shifts. An annual review keeps your preparation aligned with reality.
ONE THING THIS WEEK
List your top five household risks, ranked by probability times impact.
Be specific. "Winter power outage lasting 3+ days" is better than "power outage." "Severe thunderstorm with flooding" is better than "bad weather." Specific risks lead to specific preparation.
ON THE RADAR
The Trust & Will 2026 Estate Planning Report — a survey of 5,000 U.S. adults conducted in January 2026 — found that 56% of Americans have zero estate planning documents in place. Will ownership fell five points in a single year, from 31% to 26%. Among those who do have a will, nearly one in four (23%) still have no instructions for their digital accounts. Probability of death: 100%. Impact: severe financial and legal chaos for unprepared families. This is a risk that's free to assess and relatively affordable to fix — and it fits squarely on the probability × impact matrix.
LESSON FROM: JEFFREY J. DENNING
Jeffrey J. Denning's operational background — Army officer, SWAT team leader, diplomatic security specialist in Israel and Palestine, Federal Air Marshal — included extensive real-world threat assessment under pressure. His framework for evaluating threats mirrors the professional risk matrix but adds a third dimension: your readiness level. A high-probability, high-impact threat that you're well-prepared for is less concerning than a moderate-probability, moderate-impact threat you haven't addressed at all.
Denning's advice: don't chase the biggest threat. Address the missing pieces. The risk that should get your attention next is the one with the highest combination of probability and impact where your preparation is weakest. That's where your next dollar and next hour provide the most return.
Warrior SOS: Military Veterans' Stories of Faith, Emotional Survival and Living with PTSD by Jeffrey J. Denning — ~$15 paperback.
WHAT'S HAPPENING
On June 16, a federal grand jury indicted 15 members of Direct Action Minnesota (DAMN) on charges including conspiracy to impede a federal officer, interstate stalking, solicitation to commit a crime of violence, assault on a federal officer, and destruction of government property. The group had been systematically disrupting Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations across the Minneapolis–Saint Paul metro area since January 2026 — but the 96-page indictment reveals something far more concerning for the average person going about their day: an organizational sophistication that looks less like protest and more like a paramilitary unit.
The command structure. DAMN operates with strict role differentiation. "Hard blockade" teams deploy vehicles, 30-foot trailers sourced off Facebook Marketplace, and Czech hedgehogs — the WWII-era metal X-frame obstacles designed to stop armored vehicles — to seal access roads near the Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building. "Soft blockade" teams advance with homemade shields of plastic, wood, and metal. Behind them: dispatchers monitoring encrypted Signal group chats in real time, coordinating "commuters" assigned to tail individual federal vehicles, each paired with a "co-pilot" relaying updates. The group ran a formal "Anarchist Speaking Tour" in April 2026 — Chicago, Ann Arbor, Seattle — training affiliated cells nationwide on how to replicate the Minneapolis model.
The database. DAMN maintains "Defrost," a publicly searchable database of every vehicle ever observed near the Whipple building: make, model, plate, times spotted, activities observed, whether occupants wore tactical gear, and an aggressiveness-response rating. A secondary system called "Hot Dishes" strips it to only vehicles confirmed active on the road that morning — refreshed daily, purged each night — so commuters can query a dispatcher for a real-time plate check mid-pursuit.
The violence. On May 18, member Natasha Rakotz brake-checked a federal officer's vehicle on a public road and then side-swiped it, causing a collision. Another member knocked paperwork from an agent's hands and kicked a government vehicle hard enough to dent it. One defendant posted video on Instagram while wearing body armor urging followers to arm themselves. Two defendants remain at large. The courthouse where they were arraigned was later attacked.
Why this matters to us. This is a fielded intelligence-collection and rapid-deployment network — not a protest infrastructure. The commuter protocol crosses state lines (one pursuit continued into Hudson, Wisconsin). The Defrost plate database is publicly accessible. If your vehicle resembles a federal fleet vehicle in an area of active immigration enforcement — plain sedan, unmarked, no front plate — it could be flagged and followed without any connection to the situation. Physical blockades using anti-tank obstacles and flipped trailers on public roads create hazards for every driver present and prevent emergency vehicles from getting through. Civilians caught between an active federal operation and a counter-operation of this sophistication face real risk from proximity, not intent. Know your surroundings.
WHAT I'M TESTING
Household Risk Assessment Template
I created a one-page risk matrix listing 15 scenarios relevant to my location and household. Each one has three scores: probability (1 to 5), impact (1 to 5), and readiness (1 to 5). The priority score is probability times impact divided by readiness. Higher scores get attention first.
My current highest priority: medical emergency during an outage (high probability since we have a CPAP user, high impact, moderate readiness). My lowest priority: earthquake (very low probability in my area, moderate impact, low readiness but appropriately so). The assessment took 20 minutes and gave me clear direction for the next quarter's preparation efforts. Free.
Budget alternative: A simple list of "what's most likely to happen here?" ranked by gut feeling. Not as rigorous, but better than no assessment at all.
OVERRATED / UNDERRATED
Overrated: Preparing for doomsday scenarios. An EMP, nuclear war, or societal collapse commands internet attention but has extremely low probability. The resources spent preparing for these would provide dramatically more value applied to the moderate-probability events that actually happen to people.
Underrated: Reassessing annually. Your risk profile changes. You move. You age. Your family composition changes. Infrastructure around you deteriorates or improves. Last year's assessment may not reflect this year's reality.
THE LINK DUMP
FEMA Risk Assessment Guide — Federal methodology for community risk assessment.
USGS: Natural Hazards — Hazard maps and data for earthquake, flood, and volcanic risk.
CrimeMapping.com — Local crime data for assessing security risks.
Grokipedia: Risk Assessment — Background on risk evaluation frameworks.
Ready.gov: Know Your Risk — Federal tools for identifying location-specific hazards.
Coming Up
The final issue of this phase: what the last five disasters taught us, and how those lessons shape preparedness for the next five.
PS: My top-priority risk after the assessment wasn't what I expected. I thought it would be a winter storm. It was actually a house fire, because probability is higher than I'd assumed and my fire escape plan hadn't been practiced in over a year. The assessment changed my next action. That's exactly what it's supposed to do.
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