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FROM THE DESK

I was at a restaurant last week and counted how many people were facing the door. Three out of maybe forty. Everyone else had their back to the entrance, face in a phone. I'm not saying you need to sit like a spy in every Applebee's. But noticing your environment costs nothing and occasionally matters a lot.

Here's what I've got this week.

THE BRIEF

Situational Awareness Without the Paranoia

This is one of those topics the internet has managed to make sound either impossibly complicated or embarrassingly tacticool. It's neither. Situational awareness is just the habit of paying attention to what's around you.

You already do it when you drive. You check mirrors, scan intersections, notice brake lights ahead. You're not paranoid about driving. You're just engaged. The goal is to bring that same low-level attention to the rest of your day.

The simplest framework comes from the military and is sometimes called the Cooper Color Code. White means oblivious, completely unaware. Yellow means relaxed but alert, you're noticing your surroundings without fixating on anything. Orange means something specific has caught your attention and you're evaluating it. Red means you've identified a threat and you're acting.

Most people spend their entire day in White. The goal isn't to live in Orange. It's to stay in Yellow. Relaxed awareness. You notice exits when you walk into a building. You glance at who's around you in a parking lot. You register when something feels off, even if you can't articulate why.

Here's what actually matters in practical terms. When you enter a room, note the exits. In a parking lot, keep your head up and your keys in your hand. In a crowd, watch movement patterns, not individual faces. If something doesn't feel right, leave. Your instincts evolved over millions of years. They're usually worth listening to.

The biggest barrier to situational awareness is your phone. Not because phones are bad, but because they absorb your entire visual field. Try walking from your car to a store entrance without looking at your screen. Just once. You'll be surprised how much you notice.

This isn't about living in fear. It's about living with your eyes open. The same skill that helps you spot a pickpocket in a tourist area also helps you notice a storm rolling in, a car driving erratically, or a situation escalating before it reaches you.

ONE THING THIS WEEK

Pick one routine trip and stay in Yellow the whole time.

ON THE RADAR

Philippines LPG Prices Jump Double Digits for April — A Cascade Already in Motion

Philippine fuel companies including Petron raised LPG prices by double digits per kilo effective April 1, 2026, as shipping costs spike from restricted Strait of Hormuz access. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency two weeks ago (the first country to do so) and is working from 46 days of diesel and 24 days of LPG. The LPG Marketers Association warns retail tank prices could reach ₱1,500 — roughly double the pre-war price — by end of April.

This is what the cascade looks like in real time: a chokepoint closes, a country that imports 90% of its oil runs low, prices spike, then shortages follow. The Philippines is roughly 6 to 8 weeks ahead of where Europe is headed if the Hormuz closure holds past the April 6 deadline.

Sources: GMA News, April 1, 2026; CNBC, March 26, 2026

LESSON FROM: CLINT EMERSON

Clint Emerson spent 20 years as a Navy SEAL before writing Escape the Wolf, a book specifically about situational awareness for civilians. His core idea is straightforward: most dangerous situations give warning signs, but only to people who are paying attention. He calls these "pre-incident indicators," the small behavioral cues that precede violence, theft, or accidents.

Emerson's practical advice is to build what he calls a "baseline." When you enter any environment, notice what's normal. The noise level, the movement patterns, the energy of the space. Once you know the baseline, anything that breaks it stands out immediately. A person moving against the flow. Silence where there should be noise. A bag sitting where no bag should be.

You don't need SEAL training for this. You just need to look up.

WHAT’S HAPPENING

Britain's Last Pre-War Fuel Tankers Are Arriving. Then the Real Problem Begins.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned this week that the UK will begin to feel the full impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure in April as the final tanker shipments loaded before the war started arrive and reserves start to deplete. Petrol has already breached 150p per litre — the highest in nearly two years — and diesel is up 35p since late February. The UK government confirmed it is reviewing national fuel emergency plans, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with BP and Shell executives to assess the situation. A 10% diesel shortfall is projected by mid-April.

For the prepared household, this is the gap between "energy disruption" and "energy emergency." Fuel rationing, if it comes, will prioritize essential services first. What's your vehicle's range on a full tank, and when did you last fill it?

WHAT I’M TESTING

A fuel crisis doesn't just hit your car — it hits your home. When the grid goes down or rolling blackouts start, your flashlight becomes your most-used tool. The ProTac 2L-X runs on two CR123 batteries, throws 500 lumens on high, and has a low mode that stretches runtime to 20+ hours. It's small enough to pocket, bright enough to navigate a blacked-out house, and built to a standard that holds up when things actually go wrong. About $62.

If you want one in every bag, every car, and every drawer, the G20 is how you do it. Single AA battery, 54 lumens, belt clip included. It won't replace a dedicated tactical light — but at $10, you can afford to scatter them everywhere you might need one. Think junk drawer, glovebox, kids' rooms, go-bag. Redundancy is the whole point. About $10.

OVERRATED / UNDERRATED

Overrated: Self-defense gadgets (tactical pens, kubotans, keychain weapons). Most people never train with them, and in a real situation, they fumble the deployment. Awareness and avoidance beat gadgets every time.

Underrated: Walking with purpose. How you move communicates a lot. Head up, steady pace, eyes forward. People who look like they know where they're going are less likely to be targeted for anything, from scams to street crime.

What I like about this one is the simplicity. One button, three modes, and it defaults to high when you click it on, which is what you want in an emergency. It's also tough. I've dropped it on concrete twice and it still works fine. About $62.

Budget alternative: Coast G20 ($10). Smaller, dimmer, but still a real flashlight that fits on a keychain. Better than your phone's flashlight by a wide margin.

Ready.gov: Be Informed — Solid overview without the tacticool nonsense.

Left of Bang by Patrick Van Horne — Book on combat profiling adapted for civilians. Worth reading.

FEMA App — Real-time alerts for your area. Awareness starts with information.

CrimeMapping.com — See what's happening in your neighborhood. Data, not fear.

NEXT ISSUE

Long-term food storage. Not the three-day supply we covered early on. The six-month pantry that rides out job losses, supply disruptions, and extended emergencies. And how to build it without spending a fortune up front.

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PS: Best compliment I ever got was from a friend who said she started noticing exit signs after talking to me about it. Small shift, big difference.

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